2025 Canadian Real Estate Trends: Numbers & Insights
Canada’s housing market in 2025 shows signs of cooling—driven by trade uncertainty, new policy shifts, and immigration moderation—while certain regions remain resilient.
Overall Market Outlook & Prices – National home prices are expected to decline by ~2% in 2025, following a ~3% drop earlier this year.
– Toronto and Vancouver are forecast to lead the decline at –4% and –2%, respectively.
– A March Reuters poll predicts price growth of ~2% in 2025, lagging general inflation (~2.1%).
– Toronto experienced a 10% sales rebound in January 2025 (vs December), with the average price at C$1,089,300—still ~10.7% below January 2024.Sales, Inventory & Regional Nuance – National sales declined ~9.8% month-over-month in February 2025.
– Active listings rose ~13.1% to 146,250—above long-term averages.
– Quebec (+7.7% YoY), Alberta (+5.7%), and Saskatchewan (+12.9%) saw price growth, while BC and Ontario prices fell 2–3%.
– CREA and RE/MAX project a 4.7–5% national price increase in 2025, with sales rising ~8.6%.
Interest Rates & Affordability – The Bank of Canada lowered rates from ~5% to 3.25% in late 2024, with further cuts anticipated.
– Affordability remains near 40-year lows. According to Desjardins, recovery to pre-pandemic levels could take 2+ years.
– Changes such as longer amortization periods and higher insured mortgage limits offer some relief,
particularly for first-time buyers.
Immigration & Supply Dynamics – The federal government cut permanent resident intake to ~395,000 (down from 500,000) and capped temporary residents at 5% of the total population.
– CMHC aims to build 6 million homes by 2030, but only ~250,000 starts are expected in 2025.
– Ontario and BC have enacted zoning reforms allowing multiplexes and laneway homes to increase urban supply.
Policy & Government Initiatives – Bill C-56 waives GST on new rental housing until 2030, aiming to spur rental development.
– The Housing Accelerator Fund pledges 750,000 new homes over a decade.
– The Conservative Party has proposed eliminating GST on homes under C$1M and reducing building fees to incentivize supply.
Benefits & Challenges for Stakeholders Buyers
– Lower mortgage rates and slightly reduced prices provide an entry opportunity—especially in cooling urban markets.
Sellers
– Regions like Quebec, Alberta, and Saskatchewan remain seller-friendly, while others demand strategic
pricing and staging
Real Estate Agents
– Agents who leverage mortgage rule updates, digital tools, and niche trends (e.g., green homes) can gain a competitive edge.
Governments & Investors
– Incentives like GST waivers may drive interest in purpose-built rentals. Long-term plans depend on resolving supply bottlenecks.
Outlook for 2025 Cautious optimism defines the Canadian housing outlook. Affordability remains strained, but monetary easing, regional resilience, and federal incentives set the stage for gradual recovery.
Sources – Reuters: https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/canada-home-prices-decline-2-trade-war-hitshomebuyer-confidence-2025-06-26/
– Reuters: https://www.reuters.com/markets/toronto-home-sales-rebound-10-january-2025-02-05/
– BungalowFinder: https://bungalowfinder.ca/Canadian-Housing-Market-Trends-March-2025
– Investopedia: https://www.investopedia.com
– KelownaRealEstate.com: https://www.kelownarealestate.com
– Unrate.ca: https://unrate.ca/canadian-housing-market-forecast/
– Enoch Wealth Management: https://www.enochwm.ca
– Wikipedia: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Affordable_Housing_and_Groceries_Act
– Wikipedia: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sean_Fraser_(politician)
– Wikipedia: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pierre_Poilievre